Edunology - Saumya Aggarwal

Is India really falling apart?

Earlier this week, ratings agency Standard and Poor's raised concerns over India's investment grade ratings and said India could be first BRIC nation to lose this grade status. This event was rather predicted as India factory output data came flat in April. I am not a big fan of S&P or Moody ratings, this reminds me how they failed during 2008 crisis to correctly rate derivatives instruments. If they can't rate few instruments, how can they rate giant economies. Having said this, I would concentrate not on rating agencies but mainly on Indian economy.

Recently, I heard one of friend said "India is destined to grow but China is determined to grow". I thought a lot about this statement, checking the growth of other BRICs. China and Brazil both have slowed but India's GDP figures are the worst in last 9 years. It gives me a feel that "All is not well".  I analyzed the situation mainly from three points:

1. Government failure since 1991 Liberalization: India was thought to grow due to its large customer base, high savings and foreign investment that would come up. A deeper look suggest that India was growing at 6% till mid 1980s and situation today is not different. With quarter ending March, growth was 5.3% as opposed to expected 6%. People who were involved in liberalization are considered to be GOD and VISIONARIES but rather than this, India grew on human optimism.

2.  Finances: Rupee depreciation to 55-56 level, depressed government bond yield and high gross bad debts with restructured loans in Banks. RBI firepower is limited to push up rupee, but we still feel decent as oil prices went down luckily. Brent is trading in range of 81-83 dollars a barrel. Banks are forced to buy government bonds, more borrowing means corporates can not raise much.

 3. Politics and corruption: Baba Ramdev estimates 10 lakh crores of Indian black money sitting abroad. This much money can not be made by fair practices and made to sit idle in a foreign land. Policy is at complete standstill, coalition government is unable to pass key reforms of FDI. Over 10 lakh crores of government revenue was sacrificed by ManMohan Singh for coal blocks. Reason given by his government was we want poor to benefit, I believe if this was the intention then government should have taken this money and distributed to poor by creating more true jobs. All knows how much money in getting looted by UPA flagship money making scheme of NREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act).

Perhaps India will bounce back. And if that doesn't happen, there could be a miracle where public rise to the occassion and excercise right to vote and throw out this corrupt government. I am still bullish about India, remember "India is destined to grow" and would bet my money on it. Hopefully the small pieces of growth & economy will start coming togther sooner than later.